The US Gov tried to be the super bail out of everyone, and as I expected, they have thus far failed. The US can take all the money from tax payers and it would not be enough to bail out the stock market which is globally tied. Thus, one would have to bail out the world, and this is a futile task.
The free market is supposed to allow poorly ran companies to fail or restructure if there is still value, and reward successful companies.
Right now the big companies (major banks, insurance, brokerages, etc) who hold most of the money (trillions) are unwinding (liquidating) their excess risk, and trying to raise capital to stay in business. It gets more complicated but I have outlined this in detail several times in my post history. (add me to view posts).
"Asian blu chips always stop at certain bottom."
Really?
Have you ever looked at the Nikkei 225? That index has never even regained 1/2 of their 1989 highs, 19 years ago.
AIG
Was bailed out by the US gov. The USG took a 79% stake in AIG and have floated them with some $165 Billion in loans. The reason for this is that if AIG failed the mass liquidation of $1 trillion on the markets in short order, would be a disaster.
Citibank (C)
The US Gov has helped bail out C by investing $25 Billion in the company with the TARP fund.
Today you can buy the ENTIRE bank and all their assets for $21 Billion.
We don't know what will happen with C from here. If you look at the the Dec options contracts ($5.00 and $2.50 puts), investors are betting the equity plunges with any bailout, merger, etc. I give a 50% chance that Citi does not make it as it is today by this weekend.
If it is still trading Monday with no bailout, or the alike, I figure the stock could be down another 20% or more.
The last 20 minuets and close of today's market swill have a big impact on what happens next.
As for the Dow, will hit 10,000 again? Not anytime soon. We have been looking at the second worst economic drop since the Great Depression. The good news, is those with cash, and good timing, can make a lot of money if they are correct with their trades.
I have been net short for the last 2 years, and have been posting this for almost 2 years. I'm still short, but this view changes sometimes by the minuet given market movements. Just trading the volatility.
Key to watch for the market:
Citibank.
The market is not likely to rally big if Citi ends up in the tank.
There is rumor on Wall Street that Goldman Sachs might get together with Citi.
Right now, everyone is wondering if there is going to be 'Sachs & the Citi' this weekend.
:P